Chapter 6 - Adventures in Mental Time Travel
Chapter 6 from Thinking in Bets Book : Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie Duke, says that by considering our past and future selves during decision-making, we improve our chances of making rational, well-thought-out choices, avoiding impulsive decisions that can lead to poor outcomes.
Thinking in Bets Summary + TOC
Theme Summary: Effective Decision-Making by Using Time Travel and Rational Thinking
In decision-making, leveraging the experiences of our past and future selves can enhance our rationality and help us understand the long-term consequences of our actions. This approach reduces impulsivity and increases the likelihood of positive outcomes.
Key Concept Words
- Temporal Discounting: The tendency to prefer immediate rewards over future ones, leading to impulsive decisions. Synonyms: present bias, short-term thinking, immediate gratification.
- Backcasting: Planning by envisioning a positive future and working backward to identify steps to achieve it. Synonyms: reverse planning, future retrospection, outcome-focused planning.
- Pre-Mortem: Analyzing potential failures before they happen by imagining a negative future and working backward to prevent it. Synonyms: proactive troubleshooting, failure foresight, negative future planning.
- Hindsight Bias: The tendency to see events as having been predictable after they have occurred. Synonyms: retrospective bias, knew-it-all-along effect, outcome bias.
Major Points
- Temporal Discounting: This bias causes us to make impulsive decisions that favor immediate rewards, often at the expense of better long-term outcomes.
- 10-10-10 Framework: Evaluate the consequences of a decision in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years to gain perspective and avoid impulsive choices.
- Backcasting and Pre-Mortem: Use backcasting to plan for a desired future by working backward, and pre-mortem to prevent potential failures by imagining and addressing negative outcomes.
- Hindsight Bias: Avoid this bias by considering all possible outcomes before they occur, maintaining a realistic view of probabilities and decisions.
- Emotional Tilt: Recognize that emotional reactions can impair rational decision-making, similar to the 'tilt' in poker, and strive to stay calm and objective.
Questions to Consider
- How does considering our past and future selves improve decision-making?
- What are the dangers of temporal discounting?
- How can the 10-10-10 framework help avoid impulsive decisions?
- What is the difference between backcasting and pre-mortem?
- How does hindsight bias affect our perception of decision outcomes?
- What strategies can we use to avoid emotional tilt in decision-making?
Step-by-Step Procedure
- Trigger Mental Time Travel: Consider the consequences of your decision in the past and future using the 10-10-10 framework.
Step: Ask yourself, "What will the consequences be in 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years?" and "How would I have felt if I made this decision 10 days, 10 months, or 10 years ago?" - Backcasting: Envision a positive future and work backward to identify necessary steps.
Step: Start at your desired outcome and outline the steps needed to achieve it, ensuring each step is actionable and realistic. - Pre-Mortem: Imagine a negative outcome and work backward to prevent it.
Step: Identify potential failures and their causes, then develop strategies to mitigate these risks before they occur. - Avoid Hindsight Bias: Keep all potential outcomes in mind before one occurs.
Step: Document different scenarios and decision trees during planning to maintain an objective view of probabilities and avoid thinking "I knew it all along." - Manage Emotional Tilt: Recognize and control emotional reactions that impair decision-making.
Step: Take breaks, practice mindfulness, and seek objective feedback when feeling emotionally overwhelmed.
Practical Example for Step-by-Step Procedure
- Trigger Mental Time Travel: When considering a job offer, think about how accepting it will impact your life in the next 10 minutes, 10 months, and 10 years. Reflect on how you would have felt making this decision in the past.
- Backcasting: If your goal is to complete a marathon, envision yourself at the finish line and plan backward, identifying training milestones and timelines to achieve your goal.
- Pre-Mortem: Before launching a new product, imagine it failing and identify possible reasons for failure. Develop strategies to address these risks proactively.
- Avoid Hindsight Bias: During a project review, document all possible outcomes and decision points to evaluate them objectively, avoiding the trap of thinking the final outcome was inevitable.
- Manage Emotional Tilt: If you receive negative feedback, take a moment to breathe and assess the situation calmly before responding. Seek input from trusted colleagues to maintain objectivity.
Takeaways and Conclusions
- Using the 10-10-10 framework helps balance short-term and long-term considerations in decision-making.
- Backcasting and pre-mortem techniques improve planning and risk management.
- Avoiding hindsight bias ensures a realistic evaluation of decisions and outcomes.
- Recognizing and managing emotional tilt maintains rational decision-making.
- Considering past and future selves enhances decision quality and reduces impulsivity.
