Assumptions Surfacing in Decision-Making

How to Bring to the Surface and Evaluate Assumptions in Decision-Making Process?

Making decisions, whether large or small, often involves a series of assumptions that guide us toward our choice. These assumptions are typically based on our beliefs, experiences, and prior knowledge. However, it is essential to question these assumptions to ensure we are making the best possible decision.

The technique outlined here helps identify and evaluate the assumptions underlying your decision-making process. By critically examining these beliefs, you can uncover any biases, overestimations, or overlooked factors that may affect the outcome.

This step-by-step approach allows you to assess the importance and likelihood of each assumption, ensuring that your decision is grounded in reliable, realistic beliefs. Whether you're evaluating a past, present, or future decision, these steps can guide you toward more thoughtful and informed choices.

Step 1: Identify the Decision and Assumptions

• What specific decision or choice am I reflecting on (from the past, present, or future)?
• What beliefs or ideas am I assuming to be true when making this decision?
• How sure am I that this was (or will be) the best choice based on these beliefs?

Step 2: List Assumptions and Alternatives

• What’s an alternative or opposite way of thinking about each belief I’ve listed?
• Is the opposing belief a reasonable challenge to my current thinking?
• How would the outcome of this decision change if the alternative belief were true?

Step 3: Eliminate Unimportant Assumptions

• Would my decision still be the same if the alternative belief were true?
• Does the belief or its opposite significantly affect my choice?
• Are any of these beliefs not really important to the decision?

Step 4: Evaluate the Importance and Likelihood of Each Belief

• How important is it that this belief is true for my decision to be valid? (Rating: 0 = not important at all, 10 = absolutely essential)
• How confident am I that this belief is true? (Rating: 0 = not confident at all, 10 = completely confident)
• How would my decision change if this belief turned out to be false? (Rating: 0 = no impact, 10 = significant change)

Step 5: Organize Beliefs in a 2x2 Matrix

• How important is this belief to my decision—does it strongly affect the outcome or not? (Rating: 0 = not important, 10 = critical to the outcome)
• How likely is this belief to be true—am I fairly certain or unsure? (Rating: 0 = very unlikely, 10 = very likely)
• Which belief should I focus on most to improve my decision? (Rating: 0 = least focus, 10 = most focus)

Step 6: Prioritize High Importance/High Likelihood Beliefs

• How critical is this belief to my decision? (Rating: 0 = not critical, 10 = absolutely critical)
• How confident am I that this belief is correct? (Rating: 0 = not confident, 10 = completely confident)

Step 7: Explore High Importance/Low Likelihood Beliefs

• How likely is this belief to be true? (Rating: 0 = very unlikely, 10 = very likely)
• How serious would the consequences be if this belief turns out to be true? (Rating: 0 = no consequences, 10 = very serious consequences)

Step 8: Reevaluate Low Importance Beliefs

• How likely is this belief to be true? (Rating: 0 = very unlikely, 10 = very likely)
• How much impact would this belief have if it were wrong? (Rating: 0 = no impact, 10 = major impact)

Step 9: Review and Adjust Based on New Insights

• How much will these insights change my decision-making going forward? (Rating: 0 = no change, 10 = major change)
• How beneficial will the adjustments be to those affected by my decision? (Rating: 0 = no benefit, 10 = major benefit)

Alternative Decision-Making Techniques

1. The Six Thinking Hats

This technique, developed by Edward de Bono, encourages decision-makers to approach problems from six different perspectives (represented by different colored hats). These include the logical, emotional, and creative viewpoints, helping to broaden the range of possible solutions and decisions.

2. Cost-Benefit Analysis

A cost-benefit analysis involves comparing the potential costs and benefits of different decision options. By assigning monetary or value-based terms to the costs and benefits, you can quantitatively evaluate which option provides the best return on investment.

3. Decision Tree Analysis

Decision tree analysis is a visual tool that helps map out the possible outcomes of different decisions. It includes branches representing different decision paths and potential consequences, allowing you to evaluate the likelihood of each outcome and the value of each decision path.

4. SWOT Analysis

SWOT analysis involves evaluating the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats related to a decision or situation. This framework helps to identify internal and external factors that may affect the success of the decision, providing a comprehensive view of the risks and rewards.